New Climate Change Products

January 2012

• Dale Kaiser attended the 92^nd Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans on January 22-26. He presented a poster - Spatial and Temporal Analysis and Depiction of Day-of-Year, All-Time Maximum and Minimum Temperature Records Set at USHCN Stations from the early 1900s through 2010 - as part of the 24th Conference on Climate Variability and Change. The poster gave a preview of a new interface being built on the CDIAC website that will allow users (with a slant toward non-scientists) to acquire plots and data to better understand how daily record high/low maximum temperatures, and high/low minimum temperatures have changed in their part of the country.

November 2011

• Bob Andes is a co-author of the paper, On the benefit of GOSAT observations to the estimation of regional CO₂ fluxes, which was published in Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) 7:161-164. doi:10.2151/sola.2011-041. The authors assessed the utility of global CO₂ distributions brought by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) in the estimation of regional CO₂ fluxes and found that the GOSAT X CO₂ retrievals could lower the flux uncertainty by as much as 48%. Pronounced uncertainty reduction was found in the fluxes estimated for regions in Africa, South America, and Asia, where the sparsity of the surface monitoring sites is most evident.
   

October 2011

• Preliminary 2009 and 2010 global and national estimates of carbon emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement manufacture indicate that 2010 was by far a record year for CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement manufacture. Globally 9,139 Teragrams of oxidized carbon (Tg-C) were emitted from these sources. Converted to carbon dioxide, this amounts to over 33.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. The increase alone is about 512 Tg-C, or 5.9%, over the 2009 global estimate. The previous record year was 2008, with 8,749 Tg-C emitted; the 2010 estimate is about 104.5% of that, or 391 Tg-C more.
   
  Much of the 5.9% global increase from 2009 to 2010 is due to increased emissions from the People's Republic of China, where emissions rose 10% to 2.247 Tg-C. Emissions from the United States were 1,498 Tg-C, up by almost 60 Tg-C, or 4%, of the 2009 estimates of 1,438 Tg-C. The record year for the United States was 2007, with estimated emissions of 1,589 Tg-C. The 2010 total is about 94% of that value, reflecting economic conditions.
   

September 2011

• The new Global Data Base of surface fCO₂ measurements, SOCAT (Surface Ocean ATlas), was officially opened for public use on September 14, 2011, during the Joint SOLAS/IMBER/IOCCP Carbon Synthesis Meeting at UNESCO Headquarters in Paris, France. The SOCAT database data product is also archived at CDIAC. SOCAT has emerged in the past four years, following the 2007 Surface Ocean CO₂ Variability and Vulnerability Workshop, as a platform to support the global CO₂ observing community to agree to minimum data quality standards that would help reduce the sampling error contribution to regional and global flux uncertainties. As the global surface ocean CO₂ data set has become more widely distributed, improved in quality and become more sustained, it has become a useful resource for data assimilation into operational carbon and climate models. Emerging advances of sensor technology are likely to make CO₂ observations viable on autonomous platforms with improved precision, accuracy and reduced power consumption.
   
  The official web site for SOCAT is http://www.socat.info. The SOCAT data products (Global and Regional Database and Gridded Database) are archived at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/oceans/SOCATv1.5/.
   

August 2011

• CDIAC has added the database "Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations From a 54-Station Radiosonde Network", compiled by Jim Angell of NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory. These time series data extend from 1958 through 2010. The database is an updated subset of Angell's historic 63-station globally distributed network, and corrects for biases found at nine tropical radiosonde stations (full details available in Angel et al. (2003)). Two significant changes seen in the 54-station analysis (compared to that of the 63-station) are for the tropics: an approximate doubling of the warming of the 850–300mb layer, and that layer's warming trend magnitude now exceeding that of the surface. We would also like to call your attention to the long and distinguished career of Jim Angell, as highlighted in a 2005 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article titled Jim Angell's Contributions to Meteorology.
   
• The latest update of the AGAGE data has now been posted; most data now extend through September 2010. A new far-north station in northern Norway (Zeppelin) has been added, although data are as yet only complete through 2008.
   
  Trichloroethylene and Perchloroethylene have been updated through September 2010 at some stations. Also, three new compounds have been added: all are Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) which have low ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs) and therefore serve as replacements for HFCs with higher ODPs. These compounds are primarily used as used as fire extinguishants, refrigerants, and foam blowers. HFC-227ea (CF₃CHFCF₃) and HFC-236fa (CF₃CH₂CF₃) can replace either Halon 1211 or 1301; HCF-245fa (CHF₂CH₂CF₃) was developed to replace HCFC-141b. HFC-236fa has an atmospheric lifetime estimated at 240 years and a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of 9810; HFC-227ea and HFC-245fa have much shorter atmospheric lifetimes and therefore lower 100-year GWPs (3220 and 1030, respectively). However, all three substances have 100-year GWPs in excess of 1000 and are therefore monitored by AGAGE.
   
  CFC-12 continues to decrease at all stations and methyl chloroform continues its exponential decay to the point where we have removed it from our list of current greenhouse gas concentrations because its radiative forcing is now much less than 1 mW/m². Increases in HCFC-22 have occurred to the point where we have revised our estimate of radiative forcing for that compound from 33mW/m² to 41 mW/m². Methane appears to be continuing the increase it resumed in about year 2007. The Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations page has also been updated to reflect these changes.
   
• CDIAC has updated their daily data included in NOAA's United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) Database through 2010. The files include daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation amount, daily snowfall amount, and daily snow depth from 1218 stations across the contiguous U.S.
   

July 2011

• CDIAC has updated through 2010 the monthly data records contained in their release of NOAA's United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) Database, which may be obtained through the CDIAC graphical user interface or via anonymous FTP.
   
• The database "Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations Derived from Radiosonde Records", compiled by Jim Angell of NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory, has been updated through 2010. This unique and pioneering dataset begins in 1958, and contains surface temperatures and thickness-derived temperatures from a 63-station, globally distributed radiosonde network. This original database is the forerunner of a 54-station subset of these data that Jim Angell has prepared to correct for biases found at nine tropical radiosonde stations (full details available in Angel et al. (2003)). CDIAC will release the 54-station dataset in August 2011. We would also like to call your attention to the long and distinguished career of Jim Angell, as highlighted in a 2005 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article titled Jim Angell's Contributions to Meteorology.
   
• CDIAC's longtime colleagues at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina have released the new version of the U.S. Climate Normals database covering the period 1981-2010. These new "normals" are the latest three-decade averages of climatological variables, including precipitation and temperature. NCDC plans to release additional normals products by the end of 2011 that will include frost/freeze dates, growing degree days, heating and cooling degree days, and climate-division and gridded normals. On the heels of the new Climate Normals release, Mark Albright, former State Climatologist for Washington State, has created an online map interface for easy viewing of three variables from the database.
   
• CDIAC's Bob Andres is a co-author on the paper, The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations, published in July 2011. The paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre Earth System Models (ESM)—HadGEM2-ES—for the Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) set of centennial experiments. The paper documents the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, and the implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments.
   

June 2011

• Bob Andres attended the 2011 International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly held in Melbourne, Australia from 28 June to 7 July 2011. He made two presentations there entitled "An Implication for Assuming No Error in Anthropogenic Fossil-fuel Emissions" and "Partitioning of Measured Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide into Fossil Fuel, Oceanic, and Terrestrial Biosphere Components". While in Melbourne, he also visited The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) office in Aspendale where he gave a presentation entitled "CDIAC Fossil-Fuel-Derived Carbon Dioxide Emissions Time Series: Trends and Uncertainties in the Mass and Stable Carbon Isotopic Composition, An Informal Presentation" and discussed collaborations between CSIRO and CDIAC.
   
  • Andres RJ, Gregg JS, Losey L, Marland G, Boden TA (2011) Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption. Tellus B, 63:309-327. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00530.x.
  • Nassar R, Jones DBA, Kulawik SS, Worden JR, Bowman KW, Andres RJ, Suntharalingam P, Chen JM, Brenninkmeijer CAM, Schuck TJ, Conway TJ, Worthy DE (2011) Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite observations of CO2 from TES and surface flask measurements. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11:6029-6047. doi:10.5194/acp-11-6029-2011.
  • Nassar R, Jones DBA, Suntharalingam P, Chen JM, Andres RJ, Wecht KJ, Yantosca RM, Kulawik SS, Bowman KW, Worden JR, Machida T, Matsueda H (2010) Modeling global atmospheric CO2 with improved emission inventories and CO2 production from the oxidation of other carbon species. Geoscientific Model Development. 3:689-716.
     
• The 2010 version of the LDEO Database is now available from CDIAC. Approximately 5.2 million measurements of surface water partial pressure of CO₂ obtained over the global oceans during 1957-2010 are listed in the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) database, which includes open ocean and coastal water measurements. The data assembled include only those measured by equilibrator-CO₂ analyzer systems and have been quality-controlled based on the stability of the system performance, the reliability of calibrations for CO₂ analysis, and the internal consistency of data. To allow re-examination of the data in the future, a number of measured parameters relevant to pCO₂ measurements are listed. The overall uncertainty for the pCO₂ values listed is estimated to be ± 2.5 μatm on the average.
   
  For simplicity and for ease of reference, this version is referred to as V2010, meaning that data collected through 31 December 2010 has been included. It is our intention to update this database annually. In this update, 21 new cruise/ship files are added to the previous version V2009.
   
  The data presented in this database include the analyses of partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), pressure and temperature of the equilibration, and barometric pressure in the outside air from the ship’s observation system. A minor equilibration temperature problem has been corrected in the R/V Laurence M. Gould data for 2010.
   

May 2011

• CDIAC staff published a study using historical daily temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network database, compiled and distributed jointly by CDIAC and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The paper, titled "Reconstruction of false spring occurrences over the southeastern United States, 1901-2007: Increasing risk of spring freeze damage?" appears in the open-access journal Environmental Research Letters. The study was prompted by the major "false spring" event that occurred over much of the U.S. in April 2007, when near-record warmth over much of the United States in March of that year promoted early growth of crops and vegetation. A widespread arctic air outbreak followed in early April, resulting in extensive agricultural losses over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S., along with widespread damage to newly grown tissues of native deciduous forest species. The main findings of the study show that over roughly the last century false springs have become more common in the far-southeastern U.S. (Mississippi eastward to the Carolinas) but less common over a region to the west, roughly centered on Arkansas and southern Missouri.
   
• Bob Andres attended the second international Workshop on the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment on Land and Oceans in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, from 23-27 May 2011. He was the lead author on one oral presentation entitled “Global Syntheses: Fossil Fuel Emissions”. Andres also attended the Global Carbon Project Scientific Steering Committee meeting in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, from 28 - 28 May 2011.
   

March 2011

• Bob Andres contributed to a recently published paper, "Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005" which was published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1101–1116, 2011). Andres and collegues constructed a new annual estimate of anthropogenic global and regional SO₂ emissions from 1850-2005 using a bottom-up mass balance method, calibrated to country-level inventory data. Global emissions peaked in the early 1970s and decreased until 2000, with an increase in recent years due to increased emissions in China, international shipping, and developing countries. Overall uncertainty was found to be relatively small, but regional uncertainties ranged up to 30% with the largest contributors to uncertainty from China and international shipping.
   
• The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global surface air temperature time series, produced by Dr. James Hansen and colleagues, has been updated through 2010. Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record (see the January 2011 NASA press release). The next warmest years are 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2009, which are statistically tied for the third warmest year.
   

February 2011

• The global and hemispheric temperature anomaly time series of Jones et al. have been updated through 2010. These series begin in 1850, and are produced jointly by the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (United Kingdom) and the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. The year 2010 was tied with 2003 as the third warmest year in the global record (0.47°C above the 1961-1990 reference period mean), exceeded only by 1998 and 2005. The period 2001-2010 (0.44°C above 1961-90 mean) was 0.20°C warmer than the 1991-2000 decade (0.24°C above 1961-90 mean). The warmest year of the entire series is 1998, with a temperature of 0.55°C above the 1961-90 mean. After 1998, the next nine warmest years in the series are all in the decade 2001-2010. During this decade, only 2008 is not in the ten warmest years. Even though 2008 was the coldest year of the 21st century, it was still the 12th warmest year of the whole record.
   
• The Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations page has been updated to incorporate the latest data from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) program. The 2010 CO₂ concentrations from Mauna Loa are also included, as well as estimates of the 2010 global average CO₂ concentration. The latest annual increase at Mauna Loa was 2.39 ppmv, and the globally averaged increase was 2.76 ppmv. The global increase is the greatest since 1998 and the second greatest increase since records began.
   
• Surface ocean pCO₂ and air–sea CO₂ flux of the global ocean from 1996 to 2004 have been synthesized using a tracer transport model coupled with a simple biogeochemical model. This oceanic CO₂ flux analysis system was developed at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, as part of a project that provides prior fluxes for atmospheric inversions using CO₂ measurements made from an on-board instrument attached to the Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT).
   
  Nearly 250 000 pCO₂ observations from the database of Takahashi et al. (2007) have been assimilated into the model with a strong constraint provide by ship-track observations while maintaining a weak constraint of 20% on global averages of monthly mean pCO₂ in regions where observations are limited. The synthesized global air–sea CO₂2 flux shows a net sink of 1.48 PgC/yr. The Southern Ocean air–sea CO₂ flux is a sink of 0.41 PgC/yr. The interannual variability of synthesized CO₂ flux from the El Nino region suggests a weaker source (by an amplitude of 0.4 PgC/yr) during the El Nino events in 1997/1998 and 2003/2004. The assimilated air–sea CO₂ flux shows remarkable correlations with the CO₂ fluxes obtained from atmospheric inversions on interannual time-scales.